Middle East Protests

The Egypt effect
Thousands of people are taking to streets across the region demanding political and social reform.
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/rizkhan/2011/02/20112159187800156.html


Bahrain police storm protest site
Killing one person and injuring many, police carry out a surprise, nighttime attack on square where protesters camp out.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201121714223324820.html

-stay safe!

Protesters die in Libya unrest
Two demonstrators demanding the ouster of long time ruler, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, have been killed in clashes with police
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/201121623948974864.html


Protesters killed in Yemen clashes
Police shoot dead two in Yemen's main southern city of Aden, while clashes erupt for the sixth straight day in Sanaa.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201121616448133524.html


The Arab world at a tipping point?
Egypt's prospects look better no matter what happens at this point, but its immediate future is still uncertain.
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/20112275944781596.html

If Clerics/Imams step into the power voids then the situation will only get worse.

Iran killed some people too. It is getting ugly over there.

the way i see it, is youve got the sunnies trying to obstruct the shiites and them fighting each other for the control of everyone elses minds, who the vast majority of which want democracy... this could spill into an india/pakistan style civil war across the whole region... where the biggest loses, as ever, will be the average person.

Both on- and off-topic...

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/89517
GP2 (Asia Series) is due to race in Bahrain this weekend. Practice has already been postponed by one day until tomorrow, as track-side Medical Staff have been temporary called to the city's hospitals in case of an emergency.

Formula 1 teams are due to arrive in Bahrain in a fortnight for the final pre-season test at Sakhir before the season-opening grand prix on 13 March.

*edit* This weekend's GP2 Race has been CANCELLED http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/89525 Additionally, a decision on whether the pre-season Bahrain test goes ahead could well be made on Friday, with sources revealing to AUTOSPORT that teams are due to meet in Barcelona for a scheduled get-together of FOTA's Sporting Working Regulation Group. AUTOSPORT understands that the Bahrain test will be discussed in the Friday meeting. */edit*



http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/89496
Amid warnings on Tuesday from a campaign group in Bahrain that it will target the grand prix to publicise its cause, Ecclestone has admitted that the situation needs careful monitoring.
"The danger is obvious, isn't it?" Ecclestone told The Daily Telegraph. "If these people wanted to make a fuss and get worldwide recognition it would be bloody easy, wouldn't it?
"You start making a problem on the start grid in Bahrain and it would get worldwide coverage."
When asked if there was a possibility of the race being called off if the situation worsened, Ecclestone said: "I have no idea. It's hard to establish exactly what is going on."


Bernie has vowed to speak to Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman ibn Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa to get an update on the situation. Mmmmm...what's wrong with that picture...?

Bahrain F1 GP CANCELLED....!

Bahrain withdraws opening race
By Pablo Elizalde Monday, February 21st 2011, 15:56 GMT http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/89598

Bahrain Grand Prix organisers have announced that the event will not host the opening round of the 2011 Formula 1 season, after days of uncertainty following unrest in the country.

The decision was finally confirmed by the track organisers on Monday afternoon.

The Crown Prince informed Bernie Ecclestone of the decision by telephone earlier today.

"At the present time the country's entire attention is focused on building a new national dialogue for Bahrain," Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa.

"Although Bernie Ecclestone had graciously made clear that a decision on the race was entirely Bahrain's to make and was not yet required, we felt it was important for the country to focus on immediate issues of national interest and leave the hosting of Bahrain's Formula 1 race to a later date.

"I would like to extend my personal gratitude to Bernie Ecclestone for his support and understanding.

"After the events of the past week, our nation's priority is on overcoming tragedy, healing divisions and rediscovering the fabric that draws this country together; reminding the world of the very best that Bahrain is capable of as a nation once again united."

Ecclestone added: "It is sad that Bahrain has had to withdraw from the race, we wish the whole nation well as they begin to heal their country.

"The hospitality and warmth of the people of Bahrain is a hallmark of the race there, as anyone who has been at a Bahrain Grand Prix will testify. We look forward to being back in Bahrain soon."

The postponement of the race means the season will now start in Australia on 27 March, two weeks later than originally scheduled.

Renault boss Eric Boullier said his team fully supported the decision.

"The recent situation in Bahrain has been very difficult for the country. We feel the decision taken by the Crown Prince is wise and we fully support it," he said.

"The Bahrain Grand Prix has always been welcomed with enthusiasm from the Bahraini people, and we're looking forward to going back there when they have healed their country. We will now amend our logistics accordingly and will get ready for Australia."

No decision has been made on a new date for the rescheduling of the race, which was due to take place from March 11th to 13th.

I heard on the BBC News yesterday (20/02/2011) that Bernie had decided to let the Bahraini Government make the final decision - talk about "passing the buck" much...

Where are they going to conduct the final test...? *edit* Barcelona allegedly - http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/89601 */edit*

Looks like The Middle East has all gone a little bit too "Pete Tong" for Bernie's purposes!

Next up: Brands Hatch and Donnington, plus Silverstone to host F1 Races perhaps...? Or Austin to start building very fast...?

Road America in Wisconsin.

It's really been just a breath away from all this for sooo many years in the whole region. The real surprise is that it took this long, but the computer and cell phone are really probably to blame.

We have been rather quiet regarding the turmoil going on around the world today, and more particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. I believe that a couple of years ago we would have had some seriously heated discussions about the more recent events, and today not so much. I wonder why…

In growing older, have we lost our interest in these quite dramatic events? I can remember still my excitement when the Berlin Wall fell, and the opening up of the East block countries. Then there was the revolution in Romania, with the very expedient trial an ensuing execution of Ceausescu and his wife. These were major events, and I debated it all with my friends for a long time. And now we are seeing an uprising of equal magnitude, if not bigger, in an area that is the primary provider of oil and gas to the world. The human impact on the population in these countries is huge, as is the financial impact on the rest of the world.

Yet, we are mostly silent.

Certainly I would like a good debate on the topic, but I do feel pretty worn out when it comes to commenting global events. It’s as if my critical self somehow got exhausted with it all during the Bush era. The futility of our rants has become blatantly obvious over the years, and even though before I knew that my ramblings would have no impact anywhere, now it is this fact that has grown to dominate. Basically I couldn’t be bothered.

But, since I still have this addiction to reading about world events, and I am unable to keep from commenting on these in my mind, I thought I would try and write down some of my thoughts.

First of all….WOW! How fast is this whole thing spreading? The first we really heard about Tunisia was back in December with a young man immolating himself after his fruit cart was confiscated by the police. This event did make it to the top of the news here, but now just two months later we have:

Tunisia has seen their tyrant overthrown, and there are now attempts in getting a democratic government in place.

Egypt has gone the same way as Tunisia, also in record time. Although there were some clashes, for the most part the process was peaceful.

Libya is on the brink of breaking. The Khadafi family have tried to oppress the revolt, but the latest news seems to indicate that in a matter of days the regime is about to be toppled. As can be expected there is a bit more violence here, but I guess you don’t get rid of a nut like Khadafi without shedding some blood.

Bahrein is shaking, and I suppose this must have the US particularly concerned. This could be the spark that sets off the Arabian subcontinent. Although I have not read about any signs of unrest in places like Kuweit, Qatar and the Emirates, let alone Saudi Arabia, this could potentially become very serious.

Yemen is at the other end of Saudi Arabia, and here the revolution seems to also be well on its way, although not yet done and dusted.

Iran has seen some attempts of the younger generation rising up and opposing Ahmadinejad before, and I suppose they must feel encouraged by their Egyptian and Tunisian brothers to attempt something yet again. The regime will hit back hard, but I think they could go all the way.

Iraq is still in a complete mess, and I suppose will remain so for a while longer. Some commentators are now saying that it is America’s objective of overthrowing Saddam and then installing a real democracy in this Arab country that has formed the basis for all these other revolutions we are now experiencing. Not sure that I agree with that…

Jordan and Syria are showing signs of unrest. As fast as things have developed elsewhere, these two could topple quickly as well.

Lebanon has again fallen in to a bad place with the damn Hezbollah taking over completely and succeeding in ousting Hariri. However, should Iran and Syria begin to have some serious problems, this would typically weaken the Hezbollah, so with a bit of luck this could swing back the right way.

Israel has yet again managed to convince the US to veto the UN resolution against their colonies. This obviously is pissing off the Palestinians in particular, and providing a generally negative opinion of Obama among the Arab world. Maybe not such a good thing as the whole area is about to explode…

Algeria has always been a bit of a mess, and certainly it now seems to be on the verge of imploding, and Morocco is following suite.

Considering that particularly since 9/11 the Muslim world is seen as the biggest threat to the West, I suppose we should be a bit worried about what is going on. At least we should have some interest since what is happening right now is bound to have a profound impact on our world. And you know what? It could actually turn out to be a good thing…

One interesting thing about all this is that for the most part these are countries that have received the support of the US and the rest of the west. The general thought has always been that we should support these corrupt regimes in an attempt to quash the rise of the extreme Islamists. That, and the promise of continued “control” over the access to all that oil. Even if it may seem hypocritical, I would think it is in our best interest to support the democratic revolt as much as possible. As much as we would like it to be otherwise, we are dependent on this part of the world due to our addiction to oil. Regardless of whose fault it is that we are still so hooked on the black goo, it is a fact one simply can’t ignore, and unfortunately I do not believe this will change any time soon.

It is likely that this is indeed yet another sign of the end of the American world domination. We should probably keep a very close eye on what China does in the coming months…

Hen, lots of good points i'd like to comment om right now, but a few too many red wines to justify the attempt... gimme a few days...

i wouldnt beat yoursef up about the not giving a shit part though... i think as you get polder you have a disposition towards thinking things get better all the time... its just that it takes too fn long... and the middle east (and connected) is seriously fkd afterall...

but it hink in a nut shell,, if it goes sharia, we need neutron bombs... if it goes democratic - world community styles - we need to give all our love.

theres just no way to tell... at the end of the day i'd still go with a failing US than a democratic sharia middle east..,.


its like the sharia contingency is working with the democratic world joiners contingency in order to oust the regimes, but then theyll end up fighting in the end too... just like the whole middle east for ages and ages... sad state f affairs....

berlin wall was waaaaaaaay different.

Oil prices = worrying. In the UK we're at >GBP£1.30 per litre unleaded.
And Heating Oil is at silly levels....43p/litre last year to >70p/litre current...

China = the greatest potential threat, chaos or no-chaos in the Middle East. And they'll be VERY good at disguising that fact until it is too late.

Henrik- as usual, thank you for the well thought out and well expressed thoughts and opinions.

Yes, I know I'm a bit burned out on it all and fascinated and appalled at the same time. Also feeling that my outrage is useless, though these recent events show that the voice of every person can count, especially when joined with others.

Also too busy trying to keep my own head above water in this world, and failing exceptionally. Getting used to it though.

-----

As you said, much of the western world has been happy to support stability by repression for a very long time. Western countries now supporting these "democracy movements" are holding their breath, realizing that these countries are ripe for decent int religious dictatorship, a devil worse than the one removed.

The possibility of a bad outcome is as or more likely as a functioning secular democracy.

im over here in the middle east at the moment and it's on the mouths of everyone... i was in bahrain a month ago and didnt see this coming.. i hope DB is ok over there.

it's a strange vibe over here. the UAE sounds confident, as they know they too much at stake. most of the neighours around here are getting tense.

I still think the US was behind Egypt. It is just a shame that some jack asses smashed up the Cairo museum.

It is true that looking at how quickly and smoothly Mubarak fell, and Egypt’s old regime was replaced by a new government that will try and put in place a proper democracy, one has to wonder if there were not other forces at play here. Certainly much of the driving force behind the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt has been the educated youth in these countries. There is no doubt for me that as they began to get organized, they also started receiving funding from a number of sources around the world. Regardless of how such funding finally got to them, I think that for the most part it has originated from the West. However there is certainly a fair amount that has come from Islamist organizations as well, and they will be playing an important role in whatever future government these countries may have.

TC, you mention the Egyptian Museum. It was my fear that there would be some damage there, particularly given that the center of the revolt was just in front of it, and I did see some reports about looting. What I find strange though is that there has not really been anything in the mainstream media about it, and doing a recent search again on the internet, what really comes out are comments on peoples blogs etc. I would have thought that had there been some really serious damage and looting going on there, we would have had much more coverage in the media. My gut feeling is that most of the looting that actually did happen was actually orchestrated by Mubarak supporters in an attempt to discredit the revolutionists.

The situation in Libya is now moving fast, and as one would suspect good old Khadafi is as crazy as ever. As I mentioned before, Libya can’t fall without bloodshed given the mental state of its leader. Attacking demonstrators with jets? I suppose if he had The bomb, he wouldn’t hesitate to nuke the demonstrators even if it would kill him too.

This morning I was reading that he has ordered pipelines to the Mediterranean ports to be blown up. I suppose he will try and destroy as much as possible before he goes down, leaving the country in shambles. Reminds me of the Iraqis blowing up the oil fields in Kuweit as they retreated back in Gulf War I.

China is now particularly interesting, and we really should keep our eyes on them. Having managed to become, in my opinion, the dominant economic force of the world, you would expect them to be particularly interested in trying to play the Arab events in their favour somehow. They desperately need resources, and here is a perfect opportunity to ensure that future “regimes” are China friendly. However, at the same time China is also a potential “victim” of a revolution. As much as wealth has grown there recently, this wealth is still very unevenly distributed. The large masses, and we are obviously talking hundreds and hundreds of million people here, have basically nothing. There are reports of recent protests that have been quashed and obviously completely censored in the media.

So, imagine of this revolution contagion would now spread to China?

The Egyptian museum stories were carried over here. However, they only got the crappy wood portions of king Tut's stuff. The best items are in a special room that would require some serious explosive to get past.

China is interesting. Part of me says i hope they revolt, and the other part is reminded of Russia post communism. I just hope the people's standard of living doesn't drop.

Finally my buddy was in Cairo during the revolution. He never left, never went to the US embassy, and just watched go down. Now the S.O.B. Is off to Jordan, Emerates, and Oman. If any of them fall i am blaming him.

Just tell him to stay away from Qatar for a few weeks!

Henrik wrote:Just tell him to stay away from Qatar for a few weeks!

It's only a Motor Bike "meet", TC. Let him go...

Gelert wrote:

Henrik wrote:Just tell him to stay away from Qatar for a few weeks!

It's only a Motor Bike "meet", TC. Let him go...

TopContender wrote:
China is interesting. I just hope the people's standard of living doesn't drop.

After Tunisia and Egypt, we may have been fooled in to thinking that these Arab revolutions are going quickly and smoothly. Those two are far from out of the turbulence, and the threat of some extremists taking over is still very real. However there was finally very little fighting and loss of life, and the old regimes stepped down quickly. Then there was Libya…

We always knew that Khadafi is a nut. His performance on TV the other night was just epic, but I guess now the fun and games are over. The situation in Libya has very quickly turned in to some sort of civil war, and with the rather poorly organized opposition having hardly any weapons or soldiers, I don’t expect this to last for too long. Mind you, the latest news from today is saying that Khadafi wants to negotiate giving up his power in return for immunity. I suppose if nothing else, that is a sign that he is a little bit concerned about how things may turn out.

I suppose there is also another big difference with Libya from the other two, and that is they have oil there. Tunisia and Egypt do not really have any economical weight, relying heavily on tourism and to certain extent farming. As a result, the rest of the world is cheering on the revolution because it brings a sort of feel good factor. If it all goes to hell, well it doesn’t matter all that much on a world economical scale. The only possible concern is the rise of Islamic extremists, but for now it looks like things are turning for the better. Libya on the other hand is a different story.

We are seeing the impact already as we go to fill up our cars (and bikes). Obviously Libya alone is not driving the price up, the general unrest in the whole Middle East is doing that, but there is no doubt that the fighting going on there now is a major factor in the rising oil prices. There will also be many people in boardrooms across the world salivating at getting their hands on the Libyan oil when things calm down. Should the fighting drag out in time, there is sure to be foreign intervention in one form or another to try to swing the outcome their way.

So who might step in? Although the US will be keeping a very close eye on what is going on, I think it is safe to say that Obama will not want to risk having his own Iraq. However, I still would not rule out a US lead intervention because unlike Iraq II, here there would be the legitimate support of the rest of the International Community. Should things go really bad, I do not doubt that they would get the full support of the UN Security Council to take action, and if the Democrats feel confident about it this could be the ticket to a re-election.

Then there is obviously the Chinese. As much I expect them to get in to the game somehow, as they must be dying to get their hands on more oil supplies, I can’t really figure out how they would do it. It’s not like they could sail their ships over there without being seen by the rest of the world, giving away whatever they may be planning. Maybe they will just be waiting in the wings to move in for the reconstruction work when the hostilities are over. In the meantime I suppose they could sneak in to help finance the opposition to ensure they swing in China’s favour should they win.

Let’s not forget either that it was not long ago that Israel was making such a fuss about two Iranian warship sailing through the Suez Canal and up to Syria. I have not read about those sailing back yet, and so should they still be in the Mediterranean, they could easily move in to provide support to the opposition. I am sure Ahmadinejad would love to have another ally in place, and taking advantage of a revolution in an Arab country would be just perfect. On the other hand, I doubt very much that Israel and the US would sit back and watch them move in without reacting. As a result, that could be one scary outcome to this situation since an Israeli attack is likely to trigger a sweeping war in the whole area.

I better post this now, because if I wait too long the situation will have changed again making my ramblings redundant.

Henrik wrote:I better post this now, because if I wait too long the situation will have changed again making my ramblings redundant.

LOL!

Good piece Hen.

However, according to my sources (BBC News / t'internet), Libya CURRENTLY only produces 2% of the World's Oil.

2% isn't worth a major invasion, IMHO.

However, "Feelgood Factors" aside, right here is the GREATEST example of "profiteering" by effectively OPEC.
This is "we'll raise the price, just in case" syndrome...shades of "get 'em out by Friday"...

If Obama feels the need to do anything useful - get him to "invade" OPEC ffuxache...!

Meanwhile, Muammar al-Gaddafi Duck can go fuck himself - because nobody will want to play ball with the Cretin - whatever the outcome.

It may only be 2%, but their production is not that far from what Iraq produces, and they produce more oil than the UK, Indonesia, Malaysia and Kazakstan.

2% is still a lot of money...

I saw a video today where the Libyan rebels shot down one of Khadafi's fighter jets. These rebels look salty

i reckon they should shoot gidafi in the ass and then in the head... and seeing as China have that new fighter they were showing off the other day, they should fly a whole bunch of them over to Italy and be allowed to control the a no fly zone and have practice shooting down gidafi's... split the oil 50-50 with China, shoot any Iranian ships that get too close... and then build an F1 track... that to me seems a well rounded solution