Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by pabs on Sun Feb 28 2010, 22:05

Rx,

You seem to think that scientists are claiming that humans are the only source of global warming. Nothing could be further from the truth. To wit, we are now in what would otherwise be a natural warming period. The sources of those cycles are still being debated but they include solar activity, variations in the earth's orbit around the sun (called Milankovitch cycles), atmospheric dynamics, ocean currents, etc. These cycles occur one average once every 100,000 years.

These are reconstructions of the temperature, CO2 and methane concentrations obtained from ice samples from the Vostok station in Antarctica. Also plotted are the variations in solar flux from the Milakonvitch cycles. They should be pretty self-explanatory.



To me, there is a clear relationship between CO2, methane, and temperature and not so much with solar activity.

Now, superimposed on that naturally occurring warming trend is the effect of humans which has escalated the rate by which the earth is heating up. That is the issue scientists are trying to address.

Now to address the issue of global cooling, did you know there isn't a SINGLE paper in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that predicted such a thing? It was mostly popular magazines that talked about it, while the scientific community was actually addressing other issues including global warming. But I'll let others explain better...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/the-global-cooling-myth/

The fact of the matter is that science is incremental so now we understand many issues a lot better than we did back in the 1970s, and even then, no credible scientist talked about global cooling. They addressed climate change (warming and cooling) equally and made no real predictions either way. They knew that they did not understand the problem fully and said as much in their papers, always calling for more research.

And yes, I do think the problem has become so noticeable that using our own life experiences is a valid argument. You only need to look at how much ice has been lost in the poles, or the Himalayas to see that there is something going on. Like I said, this IS happening, there is no denying it and in the absence of humans it would still be there. But seriously, where do you think the emissions from your car go? What happens to them? They must be going somewhere. So where is the explanation that tells me that they are not in the atmosphere but somewhere else?

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by pabs on Mon Mar 01 2010, 02:07

One more thing, next time you want to question the credibility of "those scientist guys" think about the scientist who discovered antibiotics, or the scientist who discovered the photovoltaic effect that now allows us to have digital cameras, or the thermodynamicist that described the cycle of operation of a turbine engine. Surely they don't have any credibility.

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by Henrik on Mon Mar 01 2010, 08:38

Last summer I went to the Mer des Glaces glacier in Chamonix. Last time I was there was in 83 or something, having gone down from the top on skis. I remembered where the glacier ended as we had to walk from there. It totally blew my mind how the glacier had shrunk in some 25 years!!! The thing is totally disappearing, and it is so obvious it simply can't be denied.

That to me is a perfect visible example that there is a climate change going on.

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by pabs on Mon Mar 01 2010, 18:55

Food for thought....

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-cyber-bullying

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by RacerX on Sat Mar 06 2010, 02:51

Wholly Guacamole, where to start...(OK, this is a second reponse...1st one didn't take and I was too stupid to copy it before hitting the "send" button.) It's very time consuming so I'll try to sum up my resplies to each of you in short hand:

Henrik: Yes.
DB: Yes.

ROFL, I think the real issue is being skirted here, but whom wants to address who should live versus whom whould be expediently moved forward to their after-life? (H'mm...idea for a new thread???)

Pabs- I've re-read my post and I guess it is rather "condemning of "all" scientists. My apologies. I'm one of those guys that actually loves science (sorry for being so hard on those that practice it), but you have to admit there are so called practicers that do have an agenda...they receive funding, so there are times when they might "skew" the figures (of whatever they're studying) to justify their continuance. You have to be able to agree with me on this, no?

I definitely should have rephrased my claim (after all it is mere opinion) to not sound so condemning of ALL scientists. As for your claim to their good, God yes. Disease would run amock. millions would suffer horribly, and there would be millions upon ,millions less people if it weren't for them...(almost leaving them to blame for that over population thingy mentioned earlier by Henrik & such...LOL...JUST KIDDING, really!)..YES scientist (many, not ALL) do GREAT THINGS for humanity. As for your graph that needs no explanation, well...I can only say I need some explanation. ;-)

Seriously, what I was trying to say is "they" got it wrong calling it "Global Cooling" back in the 70's, and now by calling it "Global Warming". No one in their right mind could deny something ios not CHANGING in our Earth's Climate.

Now, while I concede the climate is a changing (never argued that it wasn't) I still have a few questions that don't ever get addressed. What about neighboring planets & their temperature patterns which follow those of Earth? To me that would mean Solar Activity is very much a part of what's going on, though your graph seems to disagree. No probs, just asking...

Also, as for my cars exhaust fumes, which I believe are made up of sulpher, carbon, Carbon Monoxide, etc, etc....What gets tosse into the atmosphere everytime a volcano goes off? I believe it was the eruption of Mount St. Helens (here in the States) that threw more CO2, sulpher, etc, etc into our atmosphere than ALL the cars have emitted since the invention of the car. They compared these by estimated weight...something like metric tons...

Anyways, I brought this up in a debate several years ago, and the guys response was that the sulpher and carbons emmitted by a Volcano are different than those emmitted by your car. I laughed as people looked on in "awe" of this guy. I always thought carbon was carbon, and sulpher was sulpher. Basic elements on the chart??? Then again, I'm a self proclaimed simpleton...maybe I don't get it???

Anyways, we now have "so called" scientists who've convinced our Government that the very CO2 we exhale is now a POLLUTANT, and thus taxable!!! That is FREAKIN' INSANE! The Gov wants to tax human breath, and then someone wants to convince me this is not about the money?

OK, I could ramble on and on...enough. Maybe we can agree to disagree?

OK, what's next...

DB, again, YES...if you read my first post I mentioned that it is JUST like politics: extremists on BOTH SIDES...and very much HYPOCRITES on both sides! Really.

Revs...again, Yes...too many people. As for the floating plastic island...are there any pictures??? ;-) Plastic sucks, unless of course it's bio plastic generated from a vegetable based plastic...like the enterior of my car! ;-)

Finally...gueuze. I don't know where to start with you. First off, we don't know each other well enough to put words in each others mouth. I'll assume you MISREAD my comment. Please re-read it, nowhere is the words "little" or "bit". As for my life style, I'll give you a tiny insight: I work for a Japanese company, because for thirty years I've admired their concept of conservative use of resources. I learned real early (common sense) that you can't just keep using & using & using and NOT expect to have repercussions (bad).

I don't hate the Japanese for bombong Pearl Harbor, I actually understand why they did it. I don't condone it, but I do understand the position they were put in by the powers that be. So yes, I CONSERVE...and I also teach my children the same! I think people should practice what they preach.

Here's another insight (speaking of my children)...my wife and I have 5 adopted children, from all sorts of backgrounds: Spanish, Latin, and yes caucasion. You see, I too think people should stop squirting out kids when they can't support themselves, much less a child. In other words, I conserve the most important thing on this planet: children. My wife and I could have more kids of our own, and add to this world, but again I decided at a very early age that when I was in a position to support others, I would adopt. I've never understood how people can just toss a child out like they do garbage...but hey, they could be worse, they could be evil SUV drivers...LOL.

H'mm...Demonizing good O'l al...well, he's such a hypocrite, he makes it easy. I would think it tougher to defend such an individual, but I'll gladly give you a go at it! I know, it makes me a hypocrite judging the man, but hypocrites making millions off of others miserey really discust me. OK, I'm a sinner, not perfect...

Oh Lord I'm getting tired...OK, rights. LOL, I can only speak from my own experience. I don't think ANYONE has the right to impose their will, beliefs, thoughts, ways, means,etc, etc, on ANYONE. I'd denounce my country in a heartbeat, if it'd fix anything at all. Please note though...I'm a self professed Christian first. A Father and Husband second. A TEXAN third, a sportbike rider and many other things, BEFORE I'm an American. I can assure you, not ALL of us are the "entitled morons" Hollywood and the media wuld have you believe.

Here's another thought for you too...all those poor countries that America has raped...I wonder if there was anyone on the receiving end that didn't profit from it? you know, whores that would sell out there own for a share of the almighty dollar? It takes two to tango, so blaming one side isn't always the fix. Sometimes those being used for profit and screaming rape afterwards should look in a mirror too, no?

OK, enough of my ramblings. Like I said earlier, I'm sure I've pissed off everyone here. Again, don't take it too seriously, and please consider the source. I have to go start a new thread about whom should be expedited to the afterlife...LOL.


Last edited by RacerX on Sat Mar 06 2010, 02:57; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : oh hell, too many typos to fix...)
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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

Post by pabs on Mon Mar 15 2010, 14:58

Rx,

I think you know me well enough to know that I am not pissed off. But on these topics I sort of revert back to a business-like attitude because this is very closely related to what I do. For instance my 86-year-old boss, who is a highly respected professor, is a hard-core non-believer in AWG. You can image how much I piss him off...

On to your points...

you have to admit there are so called practicers that do have an agenda...they receive funding, so there are times when they might "skew" the figures (of whatever they're studying) to justify their continuance. You have to be able to agree with me on this, no?

Absolutely, but there are those on both sides. And there are some on your side that are paid by big corporations. Who do we trust? See, I don't get my global warming from the media but from journals, meetings, and presentations given by the very people who are doing this research. To me that goes a long way because I am able to ask questions and probe what they do.

Seriously, what I was trying to say is "they" got it wrong calling it "Global Cooling" back in the 70's, and now by calling it "Global Warming". No one in their right mind could deny something ios not CHANGING in our Earth's Climate.

Maybe you didn't read my previous post, but no scientist actually claimed that there was global cooling occurring in the 1970s and that we should be alarmed by it.

Now, while I concede the climate is a changing (never argued that it wasn't) I still have a few questions that don't ever get addressed. What about neighboring planets & their temperature patterns which follow those of Earth? To me that would mean Solar Activity is very much a part of what's going on, though your graph seems to disagree. No probs, just asking...

Some trends are of course influenced by solar activity, for instance phenomena related to solar flares, but those are more related to weather and not climate. Besides, I doubt we have any information regarding the last 400,000 years of climate history in our neighboring planets. Venus has hardly been explored in that sense and I doubt we really know what Mars was like 100 years ago, let alone 400,000 years ago. We don't even know for sure whether water ever flowed on Mars. Sorry, but I don't buy this argument.

Also, as for my cars exhaust fumes, which I believe are made up of sulpher, carbon, Carbon Monoxide, etc, etc....What gets tosse into the atmosphere everytime a volcano goes off? I believe it was the eruption of Mount St. Helens (here in the States) that threw more CO2, sulpher, etc, etc into our atmosphere than ALL the cars have emitted since the invention of the car. They compared these by estimated weight...something like metric tons...

That's true but also irrelevant. As I have pointed out, the issue here is not whether the earth is warming. It is, and it would be even if humans weren't present. The issue is how much of that is caused by us, and whether we should do something about it. Scientists are worried because we have never seen this rapid increase in concentration of greenhouse gases and we don't fully understand the implications.

From a pragmatic point of view you could say: "well, let's do nothing until we find out," or you could say "well, let's try to figure it out and stop polluting in the meantime." One of my colleagues loves to say that this whole AGW thing is like the canary in the coal mine. It is an indication that something is going on and we should stop and see.

But from an even more pragmatic point of view, suppose we AGW guys are wrong. Is that going to be an argument for more drilling and oil explotation? or to stop investing in renewable energy sources? Maybe we should look at the countries from which the US buys oil and see how friendly they are...you know places like Venezuela and Iran. Not really US friendly, are they?

The political implications of all this are huge, and to tell you the truth I don't think we can fix this problem. But at the same time, I hate that the science has been taken from the scientists for political ends. I hate the way the mainstream media handles the debate just as much as you do, but I try to see the bigger picture and realize that whatever comes out of this can only be a good thing.

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Re: Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

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